Implementation of Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) for Forecasting BRI Stock Prices

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the closing stock prices of BRI using Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from the Yahoo Finance website, covering the period from January 2020 to November 2023. The analytical steps using the SVR method involve selecting the optimal model by applying Grid Search Optimization to various kernels (linear, polynomial, radial, and sigmoid). The best-performing model was found to be the radial kernel with parameters ? = 0.1, C = 100, and ? = 10, yielding a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.2431%, which was then used for forecasting. For the DES method, the steps involved parameter determination and minimizing the MAPE value, followed by smoothing calculations and forecasting. The optimal parameters obtained were ? = 0.89 and ? = 0.01, resulting in a MAPE value of 1.4832%. Based on the comparison of MAPE values, it can be concluded that the SVR method with a radial kernel (? = 0.1, C = 100, ? = 10) provides the most accurate forecasts for BRI closing stock prices, with the lowest MAPE of 0.2431%.